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Crown Green Handicap

David Mustard

Team: Black HorseDivision: Division 3Last updated: 10/28/2026

Rating

865

Current Handicap

14
Honours
Season:

18

Matches Played

5

Wins

13

Losses

28%

Win Rate

11.4

Avg Win Margin

11.0

Avg Loss Margin

3-5

Home Record

2-8

Away Record

50%

Handicap Confidence

Low Confidence
18 / 41 matches for full confidence· Last recorded match: 8/19/2026

Only 18 of the 41 matches needed for full confidence in the 2024, 2025, 2026 window. The rating is pulled toward the league average, so the handicap may shift noticeably as more results arrive.

Boosted by the Division 1 confidence floor rule.

Milestones

Career

No career milestones yet — keep bowling!

Next goal: Hot Streak 152/15
✦SEASON HIGHLIGHTS

No season milestones recorded yet.

Handicap Trend

All Time · 18 matches

+14 Rising
Win on the night Loss on the nightLower handicap = stronger player

The line re-checks the handicap after every match — from results, winning and losing margins, the strength of who was played, and home or away. Each dot is the number that applied going into the next game.

8 Apr28 Apr26 May24 Jun14 Jul29 Jul19 Aug-1371115

Gives 14 more chalks than at the start of this period.

Started0
Lowest0
Current14
Win Percentage(40%)
28%
score-0.44→contribution-0.18
Avg Winning Margin(25%)
11.4
score+0.57→contribution+0.14
Avg Losing Margin(15%)
11.0
score-0.50→contribution-0.07
Recent Form (last 20)(10%)
28%
score-0.44→contribution-0.04
Opponent Strength(10%)
927
score-0.53→contribution-0.05
Weighted Score-0.208
Sample Size Confidence
50%(18/41 matches) · floored
Rating937 → shrunk 969→ adjusted 869
Recent 3-Season Rating (2024, 2025, 2026)869
Recency Blend24% (18 recent matches)
Final Rating869
Handicap
14

Formula: Rating = 1000 + (weighted score × 300). Each factor is normalized to −1…+1, multiplied by its weight, then summed. Window: factors are computed from the Handicap Calculation Years only (2024, 2025, 2026), excluding walkovers — the same window the official recalculation uses. Bayesian shrinkage: the raw rating is pulled toward 1000 by confidence (window matches ÷ 41, an adaptive threshold set by the last recalculation). Offsets: division and B/C/D team offsets are then applied, weighted by where each window match was played. Recency blend: the calculation years are re-weighted at up to 40% by match volume. Players with a long career but fewer than 5 window matches fall back to their full career record. Rating maps to handicap 0–15 (lower = stronger) via the league's spread multiplier.

League

5W13L18 matches·27.8% win rate
ClubSeasonsDivision(s)PWLWin %
Black Horse2026Division 31851327.8%
DateOpponentH/AScoreResultMarginCompetitionDivision
8/19/2026Ken GreenallH9-21LOSS-12LeagueDivision 3
8/11/2026Geoff HoughtonA4-21LOSS-17LeagueDivision 3
8/5/2026Robbie MarshallH12-21LOSS-9LeagueDivision 3
7/29/2026David DuffyA7-21LOSS-14LeagueDivision 3
7/22/2026Andy LittlerH21-8WIN+13LeagueDivision 3
7/14/2026Geoff GaskellA8-21LOSS-13LeagueDivision 3
7/8/2026A CarrH11-21LOSS-10LeagueDivision 3
6/30/2026Phil NewA21-19WIN+2LeagueDivision 3
6/24/2026Phil RayH11-21LOSS-10LeagueDivision 3
6/16/2026Trevor FrenchA11-21LOSS-10LeagueDivision 3
6/9/2026Paul BoltonA15-21LOSS-6LeagueDivision 3
5/26/2026Robbie MarshallA6-21LOSS-15LeagueDivision 3
5/13/2026Barry CainA9-21LOSS-12LeagueDivision 3
5/6/2026Graham HillH21-8WIN+13LeagueDivision 3
4/28/2026Ron VizardA15-21LOSS-6LeagueDivision 3
4/22/2026Ken EvansH21-10WIN+11LeagueDivision 3
4/15/2026Jeff HumphriesA21-3WIN+18LeagueDivision 3
4/8/2026Tony FinnertyH12-21LOSS-9LeagueDivision 3

Current Streak

4losses

In a slump

Longest Win Run

2

Career best winning streak

Longest Loss Run

5

Career worst losing streak

Last 520% win rate
LLLLW
Last 1020% win rate— steady
LLLLWLLWLL
OpponentWLTotalWin %Last Met
Robbie Marshall0220%8/5/2026
Ken Greenall0110%8/19/2026
Geoff Houghton0110%8/11/2026
David Duffy0110%7/29/2026
Andy Littler101100%7/22/2026
Geoff Gaskell0110%7/14/2026
A Carr0110%7/8/2026
Phil New101100%6/30/2026
Phil Ray0110%6/24/2026
Trevor French0110%6/16/2026
Biggest Win
Jeff Humphries (+18)4/15/2026
Heaviest Defeat
Geoff Houghton (-17)8/11/2026
Best Season
202628% · 18 matches
Worst Season
202628% · 18 matches
Form Arc (1st half → 2nd half)
33% → 22%declining
Avg Opponent Rating Faced
92718 known · 0 unknown
vs Strong Opponents (rating ≥ 1000)
0-40% win rate
vs Weak Opponents (rating < 1000)
5-936% win rate
Division 327.8%
5W·13L·18 played

Debut

Apr 8, 2026

Latest

Aug 19, 2026

Seasons Active

1 (4 mo span)

Matches / Season

18.0 (18 total)

Seasons

2026